Novosti
|
This journal is indexed in Scopus |
|---|
Year 2010 Vol. 18 No 6
GENERAL AND SPECIAL SURGERY
SARAP P.V., VINNIK YU.S., OSTANIN A.A.
SCALE OF OUTCOME PREDICTION IN PATIENTS WITH URGENT SURGICAL PATHOLOGY CONSIDERING IMMUNE STATUS INDICATORS
Objectives. To work out a surgical immune-associated factor evaluation scale (SIAFE) to predict the outcome in patients with urgent surgical pathology, to estimate its informativeness, sensitivity and specificity.
Methods. Training data consist of 440 patients (930 examinations). The control group consisted of 80 patients with diffuse peritonitis. To calculate the SIAFE indicators of patients’ condition and the characteristic of immune system organization clusters were used. The SIAFE scale considers severity of peritoneal inflammation, SAPS II score, CD20+ lymphocytes count, parities of CD25+, CD38+ and CD95+ lymphocytes and a distance from the immune status cluster centre.
Results. According to the results of the dispersive analysis, the SIAFE scale is more informative in comparison with traditionally used scales, permits to estimate probability of a lethal outcome statistically authentically. The ROC-analysis confirms high sensitivity and specificity, «excellent» characteristics (AUC=0,95) of SIAFE scale.
Conclusions. The basic advantage of SIAFE is its universality at the estimation of disease outcome prediction in patients with urgent surgical abdominal pathology in various terms from the moment of hospitalization.
- Buttenschoen, K. Effect of major abdominal surgery on the host immune response to infection / K. Buttenschoen, K. Fathimani, D. C. Buttenschoen // Curr. Opin. Infect. Dis. – 2010. – N 3. – P. 259-267.
- Esposito, S. Immune system and surgical site infection / S. Esposito // J. Chemother. – 2001. – Spec. N 1. – P. 12-16.
- Plasma cytokine measurements augment prognostic scores as indicators of outcome in patients with severe sepsis / A. Oberholzer [et al.] // Shock. – 2005. – N 6. – P. 488-493.
- Авдеев, С. Н. Применение шкал оценки тяжести в интенсивной терапии и пульмонологии / С. Н. Авдеев, А. Г. Чучалин // Пульмонология. – 2001. – № 11. – С. 77-91.
- Современные представления о классификации перитонита и системах оценки тяжести состояния больных / В. Д. Федоров [и др.] // Хирургия. – 2000. – № 4. – С. 58-62.
- Zweig, M. H. ROC Plots: A Fundamental Evaluation Tool in Clinical Medicine / M. H. Zweig, G. Campbell // Clinical Chemistry. – 1993. – Vol. 39, N 4. – P. 146-160.
- Fawcett, T. ROC graphs: notes and practical considerations for researchers / T. Fawcett // Kluwer Academic Publishers. – 2004. – Printed in the Netherlands.
- Fawcett, T. Using rule sets to maximize ROC performance / T. Fawcett // Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Data Mining. – Los Alamitos, 2001. – P. 131.
- Пригожин, И. Порядок из хаоса: новый диалог с природой / И. Пригожин, И. Стенгерс. – М.: Прогресс, 1986. – 432 с.
- Self-organization of chaos synchronization and pattern formation in coupled chaotic oscillators / X. Zhang [et al.] // Phys. Rev. E. Stat. Nonlin. Soft. Matter. Phys. – 2006. – Vol. 7. – P. 1520-1522.
- Bernardes, A. T. Immune network at the edge of chaos / A. T. Bernardes, R. M. dos Santos // J. Theor. Biol. – 1997. – Vol. 2. – P. 173-187.
- Manian, F. A. Modern medicine and chaos theory / F. A. Manian // JAMA. – 1997. – Vol. 17. – P. 1399-1400.
- Леончик, Е. Ю. Кластерный анализ. Терминология, методы, задачи / Е. Ю. Леончик, О. В. Савастру. – Одесса: изд-во Одес. нац. ун-та, 2007. – 208 c.
- Kaiser, H. F. The Varimax criterion for analytic rotation in factor analysis / H. F. Kaiser // Psychometrika. – 1958. – N 23. – P. 187-200.
- Способ прогноза исхода заболевания пациентов с ургентной хирургической патологией органов брюшной полости: пат. 2352948 РФ, МПК G01N 33/53 / П. В. Сарап, Ю. С. Винник; заявитель Краснояр. гос. мед. акад. – № 200122617; заявл. 15.06.2007; опубл. 20.04.2009 // Изобретения. Полезные модели. – 2009. – № 11. – С. 492.
Article in the .pdf format
