This journal is
indexed in Scopus
Year 2021 Vol. 29 No 5
GENERAL & SPECIAL SURGERY
N.V. LEBEDEV 1, S. B. AGRBA 2, V.S. POPOV 1, A.E. KLIMOV 1, G.T. SVANADZE 1
PROGNOSIS FOR SECONDARY PERITONITIS OUTCOME
Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University),
Burdenko National Medical Research Center of Neurosurgery, Moscow,
The Russian Federation
Objectives. To develop a new system for predicting the outcome of secondary peritonitis and analyze its accuracy in comparison with the most common analogous systems.
Methods. The study is based on the analysis of treatment results in patients (n=352) with secondary peritonitis. At admission sepsis was diagnosed in 15 (4.3%) patients, septic shock – in 4 (1.1%) persons. There were the following main causes of death in the mortality structure: purulent intoxication and/or sepsis – 51 cases (87.9%), cancer intoxication – 4 (6.9%) cases, acute cardiovascular failure – 3 cases (5.2%). The efficacy of the Mantheim Peritoneal Index (MPI), WSES prognostic score, APACHE-II scale, gSOFA score and Peritonitis Prediction System (PPS) developed by the authors were analyzed. The likelihood of the effect of 85 clinical and laboratory parameters on the outcome of patients with secondary peritonitis using nonparametric methods of statistical research (Fisher’s test, Mann-Whitney test, Chi-square with Yates correction) have been analyzed. Criteria predictively associated with lethal outcome (p <0.05) were selected, they were included in the PPS scale. To compare the predictive value of peritonitis prediction systems, ROC analysis was used with the construction of ROC curves for each of the systems.
Results. The most important criteria in predicting fatal outcome are the patient’s age, the presence of malignant tumor, the exudate nature, sepsis (septic shock), and also polyorganic insufficiency which is not associated with developed peritonitis. To assess the prognostic value of peritonitis prediction systems, ROC curve analysis was used. The greatest accuracy in terms of predicting mortality in patients with generalized secondary peritonitis is possessed by PPS (AUC 0.942), minimal – APACHEII (AUC 0.840).
Conclusion. APACHEII, MPI, WSESSSS and PPS systems can be considered as reliable in predicting mortality in patients with peritonitis. The greatest accuracy in predicting fatal outcome in patients with generalized secondary peritonitis had PPS (94%).
- Tolonen M, Coccolini F, Ansaloni L, Sartelli M, Roberts DJ, McKee JL, Leppaniemi A, Doig CJ, Catena F, Fabian T, Jenne CN, Chiara O, Kubes P, Kluger Y, Fraga GP, Pereira BM, Diaz JJ, Sugrue M, Moore EE, Ren J, Ball CG, Coimbra R, Dixon E, Biffl W, MacLean A, McBeth PB, Posadas-Calleja JG, Di Saverio S, Xiao J, Kirkpatrick AW. Getting the invite list right: a discussion of sepsis severity scoring systems in severe complicated intra-abdominal sepsis and randomized trial inclusion criteria. World J Emerg Surg. 2018 Apr;13(1):1-11. doi: 10.1186/s13017-018-0177-2. eCollection 2018.
- Sartelli M, Catena F, Abu-Zidan FM, Ansaloni L, Biffl WL, Boermeester MA, Ceresoli M, Chiara O, Coccolini F, De Waele JJ, Di Saverio S, Eckmann C, Fraga G, Giannella M, Girardis M, Griffiths EA, Kashuk JL, Kirkpatrick A, Khokha V, Kluger Y, Labricciosa FM, Leppäniemi A, Vitt Maier R, May AK, Malangoni M, Martin-Loeches I, Mazuski JE, Montravers P, Peitzman A, Tavares Pereira BM, Reis T, Sakakushev B, Sganga G, Soreide K, Sugrue M, Ulrych J, Vincent J-L, Viale P, Moore EE. Management of intra-abdominal infections: recommendations by the WSES 2016 consensus conference. World J Emerg Surg. 2017;12(1):2-31. doi: 10.1186/s13017-017-0132-7
- Tolonen M, Sallinen V, Mentula P, Leppäniemi A. Preoperative prognostic factors for severe diffuse secondary peritonitis: a retrospective study. Langenbecks Arch Surg. 2016 Aug;401(5):611-17. doi: 10.1007/s00423-016-1454-8
- Singer M, Deutschman CS, Seymour CW, Shankar-Hari M, Annane D, Bauer M, Bellomo R, Bernard GR, Chiche JD, Coopersmith CM, Hotchkiss RS, Levy MM, Marshall JC, Martin GS, Opal SM, Rubenfeld GD, van der Poll T, Vincent JL, Angus DC. The Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3). JAMA. 2016 Feb 23;315(8):801-10. doi: 10.1001/jama.2016.0287
- Kirkpatrick AW, Coccolini F, Ansaloni L, Roberts DJ, Tolonen M, McKee JL, Leppaniemi A, Faris P, Doig CJ, Catena F, Fabian T, Jenne CN, Chiara O, Kubes P, Manns B, Kluger Y, Fraga GP, Pereira BM, Diaz JJ, Sugrue M, Moore EE, Ren J, Ball CG, Coimbra R, Balogh ZJ, Abu-Zidan FM, Dixon E, Biffl W, MacLean A, Ball I, Drover J, McBeth PB, Posadas-Calleja JG, Parry NG, Di Saverio S, Ordonez CA, Xiao J, Sartelli M; Closed Or Open after Laparotomy (COOL) after Source Control for Severe Complicated Intra-Abdominal Sepsis Investigators. Closed Or Open after Source Control Laparotomy for Severe Complicated Intra-Abdominal Sepsis (the COOL trial): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial. World J Emerg Surg. 2018 Jun 22;13:26. doi: 10.1186/s13017-018-0183-4. eCollection 2018.
- Savel’ev VS, Gel’fand BR. (red). Abdominal’naia khirurgicheskaia infektsiia. Natsional’nye rekomendatsii. Moscow, RF: Borges; 2011. 98 p. http://infectology.ucoz.ru/_ld/1/151-_.pdf (In Russ.)
- Linder MM, Wacha H, Feldmann U, Wesch G, Streifensand RA, Gundlach E. The Mannheim peritonitis index. An instrument for the intraoperative prognosis of peritonitis. Chirurg. 1987 Feb;58(2):84-92.
- Knaus WA, Draper EA, Wagner DP, Zimmerman JE. APACHE II: a severity of disease classification system. Crit Care Med. 1985 Oct;13(10):818-29.
- Robin X, Turck N, Hainard A, Tiberti N, Lisacek F, Sanchez JC, Müller M. pROC: an open-source package for R and S+ to analyze and compare ROC curves. BMC Bioinformatics. 2011 Mar 17;12:77. doi: 10.1186/1471-2105-12-77
117198, Russian Federation,
Moscow, South-Western Administrative District,
Obruchevsky district, Miklukho-Maklay Str., 6, Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia ,
the Department of Faculty Surgery,
tel.: 8 917-598-9015,
Lebedev Nikolay V.
Lebedev Nikolay V., MD, Professor, the Department of Faculty Surgery, Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russian Federation.
Agrba Sariya B., Post-Graduate Student, Burdenko National Medical Research Center of Neurosurgery, Moscow, Russian Federation.
Popov Vasily S., PhD, Assistant, the Department of Faculty Surgery, Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russian Federation.
Klimov Alexey E., MD, Professor, Head of the Department of Faculty Surgery. Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russian Federation.
Svanadze Giorgy T., Post-Graduate Student of the Department of Faculty Surgery, Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russian Federation.